ABSTRACT
Objective To study the epidemic characteristics of hand foot mouth disease (HFMD) and the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD in Beijing from 2010 to 2019, and to provide scientific evidence for the warning, prediction, prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Descriptive statistical analysis was conducted to analyze the epidemic characteristics of HFMD in Beijing from 2010 to 2019 using R4.0.2 software, and the relationship between meteorological factors such as daily average temperature, daily average relative humidity, daily average precipitation, daily average air pressure, and daily average wind speed and HFMD incidence from 2015 to 2019 was analyzed by using distribution lag nonlinear model. Results In 2010-2019, a total of 324 864 HFMD cases were reported in Beijing, with an average incidence rate of 155.10/100,000. May to July was the annual peak of HFMD. The average daily temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were positively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (Rs=0.66, 0.45 and 0.24, P=0.0000, 0.0000 and 0.0000, respectively). The average daily wind speed and pressure were negatively correlated with the incidence of HFMD (Rs=-0.14 and -0.3, P=2.22×10-9 and 0.0000, respectively). The RR was the highest when the air temperature was 25℃ and at the lag of 10 day, which was 1.41 (95%CI:1.12-1.77). Humid weather conditions were the risk factors of HFMD, and the influence time was relatively long. The RR was the highest when the relative humidity was 84.5% and the lag was 15 days, which was 1.51 (95%CI:1.34-1.70). When daily average wind speed was 3m/s, and the lag was 14 days, the RR was the highest, which was 1.22 (95%CI:0.86-1.73). The RR was the highest when the daily average pressure was 842.5 hPa and the lag was 5 day, which was 1.20 (95%CI:0.66-2.07). When the daily average precipitation was 166.5 mm and the lag was 7 days, the RR was the highest, which was 4.37 (95%CI:1.61-11.84). When the above meteorological conditions were met, the risk of HFMD was the highest. Conclusion Meteorological factors such as daily average temperature, daily average relative humidity, daily average precipitation, daily average pressure and daily average wind speed are closely related to the incidence of HFMD, which is nonlinear and has certain lag. It can be used to predict the risk and epidemic intensity of HFMD, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control, early warning, and prediction of infectious diseases.